Long COVID in Children and Young after Infection or Reinfection with the Omicron Variant: A Prospective Observational Study.

To describe the prevalence of long COVID in children infected for the first time (n = 332) or reinfected (n = 243) with Omicron compared with test-negative children (n = 311). Overall, 12%-16% of those infected with Omicron met the research definition of long COVID at 3 and 6 months after infection, with no evidence of difference between cases of first positive and reinfected (Pχ2 = 0.17).

Outcomes of meningococcal serogroup B disease in children after implementation of routine infant 4CMenB vaccination in England: an active, prospective, national surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the UK included 4CMenB, a multi-component, recombinant protein-based vaccine against meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) disease, in the national infant immunisation programme. We aimed to assess the effect of 4CMenB vaccination on the severity of MenB disease presentation and outcomes. METHODS: In this active, prospective, national surveillance study, we used data from the UK Health Security Agency national surveillance of meningococcal disease. We included data from follow-up of children younger than 5 years with laboratory-confirmed MenB disease who were eligible for 4CMenB vaccination with general practice 3-6 months after disease onset. All invasive MenB isolates were tested using the Meningococcal Antigen Typing System to determine whether the isolate was potentially preventable by 4CMenB. Admission to intensive care, death, and, when possible, reported sequelae in survivors were reviewed alongside vaccine status. For the epidemiological analysis, we compared laboratory-confirmed MenB disease cases before 4CMenB implementation (Sept 1, 2010, to March 31, 2015) with those after implementation (Sept 1, 2015, to March 31, 2020). For clinical follow-up and outcomes, we included all children younger than 5 years with laboratory-confirmed MenB disease between Sept 1, 2015, and March 31, 2021. FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2015, and March 31, 2021, there were 371 cases of MenB disease in children younger than 5 years, including 256 (69%) in those younger than 1 year and 128 (35%) in those younger than 3 months. After the introduction of 4CMenB, the peak age of patients with MenB disease shifted from 5-6 months to 1-3 months. Overall, 108 (29%) of 371 children were too young for vaccination, unvaccinated, or developed MenB disease within 14 days of the first dose. Of 110 meningococcal strains characterised, 11 (92%) of 12 were potentially preventable by 4CMenB in unvaccinated children compared with 53 (66%) of 80 in partly vaccinated and 11 (69%) of 16 in fully vaccinated children. 78 (21%) of 371 children required intensive care, and the case fatality ratio was 5% (17 of 371), with 11 of 17 deaths occurring before 1 year of age, including seven in infants who were too young (<8 weeks) for vaccination. Of 354 survivors, 57 (16%) had 74 sequelae reported; 45 (61%) of 74 were neurological, 17 (23%) were physical, two (3%) were behavioural or psychological, and ten (14%) were other complications. Prevalence of sequelae was similar in unvaccinated (15 [15%] of 98) and vaccinated (42 [16%] 256) children, as were composite outcomes of death or sequelae, and intensive care or death or sequelae. INTERPRETATION: Cases of MenB disease in vaccine-eligible children declined after 4CMenB implementation, but morbidity in vaccinated and unvaccinated children remained unchanged, highlighting the importance of vaccination to prevent MenB disease. The lower peak age of infants with MenB disease after 4CMenB implementation, with a higher case fatality ratio in young infants, highlights the importance of timely vaccination. FUNDING: UK Health Security Agency.

Post-COVID-19 condition and persisting symptoms in English schoolchildren: repeated surveys to March 2022.

BACKGROUND: Both post-COVID-19 condition (long COVID) and the presence of persisting symptoms that do not meet formal definitions of post-COVID-19-condition may adversely affect quality of life and function. However, their prevalence among children and young people in England is unclear. METHODS: We used data from repeated surveys in a large cohort of English schoolchildren from the COVID-19 Schools Infection Survey (SIS) for the school year 2021/22 to describe the weighted prevalence of post-COVID-19-condition and compare persisting symptoms between individuals with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test and those with neither a positive test history nor suspected infection. RESULTS: Among 7797 children from 173 schools, 1.8% of primary school pupils (aged 4 to 11 years), 4.5% of secondary school pupils in years 7-11 (aged 11 to 16 years) and 6.9% of those in years 12-13 (aged 16 to 18 years) met a definition of post-COVID-19 condition in March 2022. Specific persisting symptoms such as anxiety or difficulty concentrating were frequently reported regardless of prior infection status and increased with age: 48.0% of primary school pupils, 52.9% of secondary school pupils in years 7-11 and 79.5% in years 12-13 reporting at least one symptom lasting more than 12 weeks. Persisting loss of smell and taste, cardiovascular and some systemic symptoms were more frequently reported by those with a previous positive test. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that ongoing symptoms were frequently reported by English schoolchildren regardless of SARS-CoV-2 test results and some specific symptoms such as loss of smell and taste were more prevalent in those with a positive test history. Our study emphasises the wide-ranging impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health and wellbeing of children and young people.

Long COVID-six months of prospective follow-up of changes in symptom profiles of non-hospitalised children and young people after SARS-CoV-2 testing: A national matched cohort study (The CLoCk) study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the prevalence and natural trajectory of post-COVID symptoms in young people, despite very high numbers of young people having acute COVID. To date, there has been no prospective follow-up to establish the pattern of symptoms over a 6-month time period. METHODS: A non-hospitalised, national sample of 3,395 (1,737 SARS-COV-2 Negative;1,658 SARS-COV-2 Positive at baseline) children and young people (CYP) aged 11-17 completed questionnaires 3 and 6 months after PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between January and March 2021 and were compared with age, sex and geographically-matched test-negative CYP. RESULTS: Three months after a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test, 11 of the 21 most common symptoms reported by >10% of CYP had reduced. There was a further decline at 6 months. By 3 and 6 months the prevalence of chills, fever, myalgia, cough and sore throat of CYP who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 reduced from 10-25% at testing to <3%. The prevalence of loss of smell declined from 21% to 5% at 3 months and 4% at 6 months. Prevalence of shortness of breath and tiredness also declined, but at a lower rate. Among test-negatives, the same common symptoms and trends were observed at lower prevalence's. Importantly, in some instances (shortness of breath, tiredness) the overall prevalence of specific individual symptoms at 3 and 6 months was higher than at PCR-testing because these symptoms were reported in new cohorts of CYP who had not reported the specific individual symptom previously. CONCLUSIONS: In CYP, the prevalence of specific symptoms reported at time of PCR-testing declined with time. Similar patterns were observed among test-positives and test-negatives and new symptoms were reported six months post-test for both groups suggesting that symptoms are unlikely to exclusively be a specific consequence of SARS-COV-2 infection. Many CYP experienced unwanted symptoms that warrant investigation and potential intervention.

Neonatal outcomes of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK: a prospective cohort study using active surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Newborns may be affected by maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, clinical course and short-term outcomes of babies admitted to a neonatal unit (NNU) following birth to a mother with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 7 days of birth. METHODS: This is a UK prospective cohort study; all NHS NNUs, 1 March 2020 to 31 August 2020. Cases were identified via British Paediatric Surveillance Unit with linkage to national obstetric surveillance data. Reporting clinicians completed data forms. Population data were extracted from the National Neonatal Research Database. RESULTS: A total of 111 NNU admissions (1.98 per 1000 of all NNU admissions) involved 2456 days of neonatal care (median 13 [IQR 5, 34] care days per admission). A total of 74 (67%) babies were preterm. In all, 76 (68%) received respiratory support; 30 were mechanically ventilated. Four term babies received therapeutic hypothermia for hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy. Twenty-eight mothers received intensive care, with four dying of COVID-19. Eleven (10%) babies were SARS-CoV-2 positive. A total of 105 (95%) babies were discharged home; none of the three deaths before discharge was attributed to SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSION: Babies born to mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection around the time of birth accounted for a low proportion of total NNU admissions over the first 6 months of the UK pandemic. Neonatal SARS-CoV-2 was uncommon. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN60033461; protocol available at http://www.npeu.ox.ac.uk/pru-mnhc/research-themes/theme-4/covid-19 . IMPACT: Neonatal unit admissions of babies born to mothers with SARS-CoV-2 infection comprised only a small proportion of total neonatal admissions in the first 6 months of the pandemic. A high proportion of babies requiring neonatal admission who were born to mothers with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were preterm and had neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or other conditions associated with long-term sequelae. Adverse neonatal conditions were more common in babies whose SARS-CoV-2-positive mothers required intensive care compared to those whose SARS-CoV-2-positive mothers who did not.

Implementation of COVID-19 Preventive Measures and Staff Well-Being in a Sample of English Schools 2020-2021.

BACKGROUND: We examined fidelity and feasibility of implementation of COVID-19 preventive measures in schools, and explored associations between adherence to these measures and staff well-being, to inform policy on sustainable implementation and staff wellbeing. METHODS: Surveys were conducted across 128 schools in England with 107 headteachers and 2698 staff-members with reference to autumn term 2020, examining school-level implementation of preventive measures, adherence, and teacher burnout (response rates for headteacher and staff surveys were 84% and 59%, respectively). RESULTS: The median number of measures implemented in primary and secondary schools was 33 (range 23-41), and 32 (range 22-40), respectively; most measures presented challenges. No differences were found regarding number of measures implemented by school-level socio-economic disadvantage. High adherence was reported for staff wearing face-coverings, staff regularly washing their hands, (secondary only) desks facing forwards, and (primary only) increased cleaning of surfaces and student hand-washing. Adherence to most measures was reported as higher in primary than secondary schools. Over half of school leaders and 42% (517/1234) of other teaching staff suffered from high emotional exhaustion. Higher teacher-reported school-wide adherence with measures was consistently associated with lower burnout for leaders and other teaching staff. CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate a tremendous effort in implementing preventive measures and an urgent need to support investments in improving teacher wellbeing.

Protection against symptomatic infection with delta (B.1.617.2) and omicron (B.1.1.529) BA.1 and BA.2 SARS-CoV-2 variants after previous infection and vaccination in adolescents in England, August, 2021-March, 2022: a national, observational, test-negative, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection following previous infection with specific individual SARS-CoV-2 variants, COVID-19 vaccination, and a combination of previous infection and vaccination (hybrid immunity) in adolescents. We aimed to estimate protection against symptomatic PCR-confirmed infection with the delta (B.1.617.2) and omicron (B.1.1.529) variants in adolescents with previous infection, mRNA vaccination, and hybrid immunity. METHODS: We conducted an observational, test-negative, case-control study using national SARS-CoV-2 testing and COVID-19 mRNA vaccination data in England. Symptomatic adolescents aged 12-17 years who were unvaccinated or had received primary BNT162b2 immunisation at symptom onset and had a community SARS-CoV-2 PCR test were included. Vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection status in adolescents with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 (cases) were compared with vaccination and previous infection status in adolescents who had a negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR test (controls). Vaccination data were collected from the National Immunisation Management System, and were linked to PCR testing data. The primary outcome was protection against SARS-CoV-2 delta and omicron infection (defined as 1 - odds of vaccination or previous infection in cases divided by odds of vaccination or previous infection in controls). FINDINGS: Between Aug 9, 2021, and March 31, 2022, 1 161 704 SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were linked to COVID-19 vaccination status, including 390 467 positive tests with the delta variant and 212 433 positive tests with the omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2. In unvaccinated adolescents, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection with wildtype, alpha (B.1.1.7), or delta strains provided greater protection against subsequent delta infection (>86·1%) than against subsequent omicron infection (<52·4%); previous delta or omicron infection provided similar protection against omicron reinfection (52·4% [95% CI 50·9-53·8] vs 59·3% [46·7-69·0]). In adolescents with no previous infection, vaccination provided lower protection against omicron infection than against delta infection, with omicron protection peaking at 64·5% (95% CI 63·6-65·4) at 2-14 weeks after dose two and 62·9% (60·5-65·1) at 2-14 weeks after dose three, with waning protection after each dose. Adolescents with hybrid immunity from previous infection and vaccination had the highest protection, irrespective of the SARS-CoV-2 strain in the primary infection. The highest protection against omicron infection was observed in adolescents with vaccination and previous omicron infection, reaching 96·4% (95% CI 84·4-99·1) at 15-24 weeks after vaccine dose two. INTERPRETATION: Previous infection with any SARS-CoV-2 variant provided some protection against symptomatic reinfection, and vaccination added to this protection. Vaccination provides low-to-moderate protection against symptomatic omicron infection, with waning protection after each dose, while hybrid immunity provided the most robust protection. Although more data are needed to investigate longer-term protection and protection against infection with new variants, these data question the need for additional booster vaccine doses for adolescents in populations with already high protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. FUNDING: None.

Antibody Persistence After Primary SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Protection Against Future Variants Including Omicron in Adolescents: National, Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies are a measure of immunity after primary infection, which may help protect against further SARS-CoV-2 infections. They may also provide some cross-protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants. There are limited data on antibody persistence and, especially, cross-reactivity against different SARS-CoV-2 variants after primary infection in children. METHODS: We initiated enhanced surveillance in 18 secondary schools to monitor SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in September 2020. Students and Staff provided longitudinal blood samples to test for variant-specific SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using in-house receptor binding domain assays. We recruited 1189 students and 1020 staff; 160 (97 students, 63 staff) were SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid-antibody positive at baseline and had sufficient serum for further analysis. RESULTS: Most participants developed sustained antibodies against their infecting [wild-type (WT)] strain as well as cross-reactive antibodies against the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants but at lower titers than WT. Staff had significantly lower antibodies titers against WT as cross-reactive antibodies against the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants than students (all P < 0.01). In participants with sufficient sera, only 2.3% (1/43) students and 17.2% (5/29) staff had cross-reactive antibodies against the Omicron variant; they also had higher antibody titers against WT (3042.5; 95% confidence interval: 769.0-12,036.2) than those who did not have cross-reactive antibodies against the Omicron variant (680.7; 534.2-867.4). CONCLUSIONS: We found very high rates of antibody persistence after primary infection with WT in students and staff. Infection with WT induced cross-reactive antibodies against Alpha, Beta and Delta variants, but not Omicron. Primary infection with WT may not be cross-protective against the Omicron variant.

A cross-sectional study of the health of emerging young adults in England following a COVID-19 infection

Purpose This study describes long COVID symptomatology in a national sample of 18–20-year-olds with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and matched test-negative controls in England. Symptoms in 18-20-year-olds were compared to younger adolescents (aged 11-17 years) and all adults (18+). Methods A national database was used to identify SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive 18–20-year-olds and test-negative controls matched by time of test, age, gender and geographical region. Participants were invited to complete a questionnaire about their health retrospectively at time of test and also when completing the questionnaire. Comparison cohorts included Children and Young People with Long COVID and Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission studies. Results Of 14,986 people invited, 1,001 were included in the analysis (562 test-positive;440 test-negative). At testing, 46.5% of test-positives and 16.4% of test-negatives reported at least one symptom. At the time of questionnaire completion (median 7 months post-testing), 61.5% of test-positives and 47.5% of test-negatives reported one or more symptoms. The most common symptoms were similar amongst test-positives and test-negatives and included tiredness (44.0%;35.7%), shortness of breath (28.8%;16.3%) and headaches (13.7%;12.0%). Prevalence rates were similar to those reported by 11-17-year-olds (66.5%) and higher than those reported in all adults (37.7%). For 18-20-year-olds, there was no significant difference in health-related quality of life and wellbeing (p>0.05). However, test-positives reported being significantly more tired than test-negatives (p=0.04). Conclusions Seven months after PCR test, a high proportion of test-positive and test-negative 18-20-year-olds reported similar symptoms to each other and to those experienced by younger and older counterparts.

National and regional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in primary and secondary school children in England: the School Infection Survey, a national open cohort study, November 2021SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in school children.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 infection rates are likely to be underestimated in children because of asymptomatic or mild infections. We aim to estimate national and regional prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in primary (4-11 years old) and secondary (11-18 years old) school children between 10 November and 10 December 2021. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveillance in England using two-stage sampling, firstly stratifying into regions and selecting local authorities, then selecting schools according to a stratified sample within selected local authorities. Participants were sampled using a novel oral fluid-validated assay for SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid IgG antibodies. RESULTS: 4980 students from 117 state-funded schools (2706 from 83 primary schools, 2274 from 34 secondary schools) provided a valid sample. After weighting for age, sex, and ethnicity, and adjusting for assay accuracy, the national prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in primary school students, who were all unvaccinated, was 40.1% (95% CI 37.3-43.0). Antibody prevalence increased with age (p < 0.001) and was higher in urban than rural schools (p = 0.01). In secondary school students, the adjusted, weighted national prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 82.4% (95% CI 79.5-85.1); including 71.5% (95% CI 65.7-76.8) in unvaccinated and 97.5% (95% CI 96.1-98.5) in vaccinated students. Antibody prevalence increased with age (p < 0.001), and was not significantly different in urban versus rural students (p = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In November 2021, using a validated oral fluid assay, national SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was estimated to be 40.1% in primary school students and 82.4% in secondary school students. In unvaccinated children, this was approximately threefold higher than confirmed infections highlighting the importance of seroprevalence studies to estimate prior exposure. DATA AVAILABILITY: Deidentified study data are available for access by accredited researchers in the ONS Secure Research Service (SRS) for accredited research purposes under part 5, chapter 5 of the Digital Economy Act 2017. For further information about accreditation, contact Research.support@ons.gov.uk or visit the SRS website.

A Cross-Sectional Study of the Health of Emerging Young Adults in England Following a COVID-19 Infection.

PURPOSE: This study describes long COVID symptomatology in a national sample of 18- to 20-year-olds with Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)-confirmed Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS­CoV­2) and matched test-negative controls in England. Symptoms in 18- to 20-year-olds were compared to symptoms in younger adolescents (aged 11-17 years) and all adults (18+). METHODS: A national database was used to identify SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive 18- to 20-year-olds and test-negative controls matched by time of test, age, gender, and geographical region. Participants were invited to complete a questionnaire about their health retrospectively at time of test and also when completing the questionnaire. Comparison cohorts included children and young people with long COVID and REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission studies. RESULTS: Of 14,986 people invited, 1,001 were included in the analysis (562 test-positive; 440 test-negative). At testing, 46.5% of test-positives and 16.4% of test-negatives reported at least one symptom. At the time of questionnaire completion (median 7 months post-testing), 61.5% of test-positives and 47.5% of test-negatives reported one or more symptoms. The most common symptoms were similar amongst test-positives and test-negatives and included tiredness (44.0%; 35.7%), shortness of breath (28.8%; 16.3%), and headaches (13.7%; 12.0%). Prevalence rates were similar to those reported by 11-17-year-olds (66.5%) and higher than those reported in all adults (37.7%). For 18- to 20-year-olds, there was no significant difference in health-related quality of life and well-being (p > .05). However, test-positives reported being significantly more tired than test-negatives (p = .04). DISCUSSION: Seven months after PCR test, a high proportion of test-positive and test-negative 18- to 20-year-olds reported similar symptoms to each other and to those experienced by younger and older counterparts.

Comparison of UK paediatric SARS-CoV-2 admissions across the first and second pandemic waves.

BACKGROUND: We hypothesised that the clinical characteristics of hospitalised children and young people (CYP) with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK second wave (W2) would differ from the first wave (W1) due to the alpha variant (B.1.1.7), school reopening and relaxation of shielding. METHODS: Prospective multicentre observational cohort study of patients <19 years hospitalised in the UK with SARS-CoV-2 between 17/01/20 and 31/01/21. Clinical characteristics were compared between W1 and W2 (W1 = 17/01/20-31/07/20,W2 = 01/08/20-31/01/21). RESULTS: 2044 CYP < 19 years from 187 hospitals. 427/2044 (20.6%) with asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 were excluded from main analysis. 16.0% (248/1548) of symptomatic CYP were admitted to critical care and 0.8% (12/1504) died. 5.6% (91/1617) of symptomatic CYP had Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). After excluding CYP with MIS-C, patients in W2 had lower Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS, composite vital sign score), lower antibiotic use and less respiratory and cardiovascular support than W1. The proportion of CYP admitted to critical care was unchanged. 58.0% (938/1617) of symptomatic CYP had no reported comorbidity. Patients without co-morbidities were younger (42.4%, 398/938, <1 year), had lower PEWS, shorter length of stay and less respiratory support. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence of increased disease severity in W2 vs W1. A large proportion of hospitalised CYP had no comorbidity. IMPACT: No evidence of increased severity of COVID-19 admissions amongst children and young people (CYP) in the second vs first wave in the UK, despite changes in variant, relaxation of shielding and return to face-to-face schooling. CYP with no comorbidities made up a significant proportion of those admitted. However, they had shorter length of stays and lower treatment requirements than CYP with comorbidities once those with MIS-C were excluded. At least 20% of CYP admitted in this cohort had asymptomatic/incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. This paper was presented to SAGE to inform CYP vaccination policy in the UK.

Post-COVID-19 condition at 6 months and COVID-19 vaccination in non-hospitalised children and young people.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the physical and mental health of children and young people (CYP) 6 months after infection with SARS-CoV-2 and explore whether this varies by COVID-19 vaccination. DESIGN: A non-hospitalised, national cohort of people aged 11-17 years old with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and PCR negatives matched at study invitation, by age, sex, region and date of testing who completed questionnaires 6 months after PCR testing. The questionnaire included 21 symptoms and standardised scales (eg, EQ-5D-Y and Chalder Fatigue Scale). RESULTS: 6407 test-positive and 6542 test-negative CYP completed the 6-month questionnaire: 60.9% of test-positive vs 43.2% of test-negative CYP reported at least one symptom 6 months post-test; 27.6% of test-positive vs 15.9% of test-negative CYP reported 3+ symptoms. Common symptoms at 6 months were tiredness and shortness of breath among both test-positive and test-negative CYP; however, the prevalence of both was higher in test-positive (38.4% and 22.8%, respectively) compared with test-negative CYP (26.7% and 10.9%, respectively). 24.5% test-positive vs 17.8% test-negative CYP met the Delphi research definition of long COVID. Mental health, well-being, fatigue and health-related quality of life scores were similar among test-positive and test-negative CYP 6 months post-test. Similarly, symptomatology was similar among COVID-19-vaccinated and COVID-19-unvaccinated test-positive and test-negative CYP. CONCLUSIONS: Six-months post-PCR testing, CYP who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 had similar symptoms to those who tested negative, but test-positive CYP had higher symptom prevalence. Mental health, well-being, fatigue and health-related quality of life were similar among test-positive and test-negative CYP, and symptoms at 6 months were similar in COVID-19 vaccinated and unvaccinated. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN 34804192.

Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves: National observational and modelling study, 2020-21, England.

Objectives: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic waves in England to develop a model to predict PIMS-TS cases. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during (March-June 2020) and through Secondary Uses Services (SUS) from November 2020. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infections. Results: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 vs. 502 observed cases), with a median estimated risk of 0.038% (IQR, 0.037-0.041%) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0.026% (IQR, 0.025-0.029%), with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model. Conclusions: The model accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in primary and secondary school students and staff in England in the 2020/2021 school year: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: Investigate risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infections in school students and staff. METHODS: In the 2020/2021 school year, we administered polymerase chain reaction, antibody tests, and questionnaires to a sample of primary and secondary school students and staff, with data linkage to COVID-19 surveillance. We fitted logistic regression models to identify the factors associated with infection. RESULTS: We included 6799 students and 5090 staff in the autumn and 11,952 students and 4569 staff in the spring/summer terms. Infections in students in autumn 2020 were related to the percentage of students eligible for free school meals. We found no statistical association between infection risk in primary and secondary schools and reported contact patterns between students and staff in either period in our study. Using public transports was associated with increased risk in autumn in students (adjusted odds ratio = 1.72; 95% confidence interval 1.31-2.25) and staff. One or more infections in the same household during either period was the strongest risk factor for infection in students and more so among staff. CONCLUSION: Deprivation, community, and household factors were more strongly associated with infection than contacts patterns at school; this suggests that the additional school-based mitigation measures in England in 2020/2021 likely helped reduce transmission risk in schools.

Predictive model for long COVID in children 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test.

BACKGROUND: To update and internally validate a model to predict children and young people (CYP) most likely to experience long COVID (i.e. at least one impairing symptom) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing and to determine whether the impact of predictors differed by SARS-CoV-2 status. METHODS: Data from a nationally matched cohort of SARS-CoV-2 test-positive and test-negative CYP aged 11-17 years was used. The main outcome measure, long COVID, was defined as one or more impairing symptoms 3 months after PCR testing. Potential pre-specified predictors included SARS-CoV-2 status, sex, age, ethnicity, deprivation, quality of life/functioning (five EQ-5D-Y items), physical and mental health and loneliness (prior to testing) and number of symptoms at testing. The model was developed using logistic regression; performance was assessed using calibration and discrimination measures; internal validation was performed via bootstrapping and the final model was adjusted for overfitting. RESULTS: A total of 7139 (3246 test-positives, 3893 test-negatives) completing a questionnaire 3 months post-test were included. 25.2% (817/3246) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positives and 18.5% (719/3893) of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-negatives had one or more impairing symptoms 3 months post-test. The final model contained SARS-CoV-2 status, number of symptoms at testing, sex, age, ethnicity, physical and mental health, loneliness and four EQ-5D-Y items before testing. Internal validation showed minimal overfitting with excellent calibration and discrimination measures (optimism-adjusted calibration slope: 0.96575; C-statistic: 0.83130). CONCLUSIONS: We updated a risk prediction equation to identify those most at risk of long COVID 3 months after a SARS-CoV-2 PCR test which could serve as a useful triage and management tool for CYP during the ongoing pandemic. External validation is required before large-scale implementation.